Ruble Ends 2025 as Top Gainer Against the Dollar as 2026 Scenarios Emerge

Overview

• RIA Novosti’s market analysis shows the ruble strengthened about 31% against the dollar in 2025, the strongest gain among the currencies it reviewed.
• Bank of Russia data confirm a volatile year, with the official dollar rate down by 23.45 rubles, peaking at 103.44 on January 15 and bottoming at 76.09 on December 6.
• Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said the strong rate reflects supply and demand under high interest rates and signaled the currency will likely stay firmer than previously expected next year.
• Academic Olga Gorbunova outlined three 2026 scenarios: an optimistic 75–83 rubles per dollar with sanction relief and capital inflows, a base case of 90–95, and a stress case above 100 if geopolitics worsen and oil slumps.
• Gorbunova expects gradual key-rate reductions potentially toward about 12% by year-end, which would support credit and investment while easing the ruble’s support from high saving yields.