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1h ago

RTE Lowers 2035 Power Demand Outlook, Flags Temporary Overcapacity and Slower Renewables

RTE blames slower electrification for a softer outlook that produces a brief surplus in supply.

RTE a réduit à la baisse ses scénarios de consommation d’ici 2035, de 35 TWh pour son scénario de référence (-6 %).
Une vue de l’EPR de Flamanville, en Normandie.
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Overview

  • The grid operator cuts its 2035 reference forecast by 35 TWh, or 6%, and now projects total consumption between roughly 505 and 580 TWh, down from earlier scenarios reaching up to 650 TWh.
  • RTE says France has entered a temporary phase of overcapacity, noting that weaker demand mechanically reduces near‑term needs for new generation and could slow renewable deployment.
  • The report warns the sluggish shift from fossil fuels risks missing decarbonization and reindustrialization objectives even as the strategy remains achievable.
  • Despite the revision, the government still plans six EPR2 reactors, while experts expect a slower rollout of renewables, with offshore wind seen likely topping out near 10–12 GW versus an 18 GW target.
  • RTE estimates about €100 billion is needed to modernize the high‑voltage grid over ten years, with Enedis facing comparable investment needs and EDF burdened by €54 billion in debt.