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Royal LePage Says Housing Market Tilting Toward Balance as Year-End Price Forecast Is Cut

Royal LePage now projects flat pricing through late 2025, with anticipated rate cuts setting up a busier spring selling season.

Overview

  • Royal LePage trimmed its year-end outlook and says buyers now hold more negotiating power as prices ease and listings rise.
  • The firm now pegs the national average at $827,796 by year-end, up 1% year over year, with the GTA down about 3% to roughly $1.11 million, Greater Vancouver down 2% to about $1.2 million, and Quebec City up 15% to around $460,690.
  • Third-quarter data show the aggregate Canadian home price at $816,500, up 0.1% from a year earlier but down 1.2% from the previous quarter.
  • Affordability pressures continue to sideline many purchasers, with Ratehub.ca estimating required household incomes of about $200,160 in Toronto and $234,700 in Vancouver to buy a typical home.
  • Sellers are resetting price expectations after the 2022 peak, with Toronto values about 12% below that high, while economists flag U.S. trade tariffs and roughly 1.8 million upcoming mortgage renewals as key near-term risks.