Rouble Strengthens Amid US Sanctions; Predicted to Slide Past 100 to Dollar in 2024; Increased Deferred FX Purchases Expected in November

Rouble's strengthening links to Putin's decree and soaring interest rates, but analysts predict weakening to over 100 per dollar in 2024 due to persistent high inflation and interest rates; Russia's finance ministry outlines plans for higher deferred foreign currency purchases in November.

• The Russian rouble, strengthened on November 3, 2023, due to the impact of the U.S sanctions against Moscow and soaring interest rates, with the rouble being 1% stronger against the dollar at 92.39.
• President Vladimir Putin's decree on mandatory FX sales for some exporters has been a significant support factor for the rouble, which has since strengthened from over 100 to the dollar.
• The US imposed new measures against Moscow over the war in Ukraine on November 2, 2023, targeting its future energy capabilities, sanctions evasion,[...]
• Analysts predict that the rouble's strengthening is likely to decline back past 100 to the dollar in 2024 due to persistent high inflation and interest rates, with the rouble expected to trade at 103 to the dollar a year from then.
• Russia's finance ministry plans to increase its deferred foreign currency purchases in November to a total of 621.1 billion roubles, up from the predicted total of 450 billion roubles, reflecting expectations of a surplus in energy revenues.

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