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Rosenblatt Sets Street-High $500 Target on Micron After Blowout Quarter and Record Guidance

Analysts cite sold-out high-bandwidth memory plus multi-year customer agreements as reasons supply could stay tight through 2026.

Overview

  • Micron reported fiscal Q1 2026 revenue of $13.64 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $4.78, and guided Q2 revenue to about $18.7 billion with roughly 67%–68% gross margin.
  • The stock rose about 10% after the release and is up more than 200% this year as brokers raised targets, including Bank of America to $300 (upgrade to Buy), Morgan Stanley to $350, and Deutsche Bank to $300.
  • CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said demand outstrips supply across DRAM, NAND and HBM, noting Micron can fulfill only roughly half to two-thirds of customer needs as pricing moves higher.
  • Research and company commentary indicate HBM capacity is sold out through 2026, while Micron plans nearly $20 billion of fiscal 2026 capex to add advanced-node and HBM capacity.
  • Coverage flags traditional memory cyclicality, potential competition from China’s CXMT—reported to be eyeing a 2026 IPO and HBM3 output—and execution risk tied to large projects such as the proposed New York megafab of up to $100 billion.