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Rose Bowl Preview: Alabama Faces No. 1 Indiana With Pass Rush Under the Microscope

PFF data shows Fernando Mendoza's efficiency drops under pressure, making four-man heat more valuable than blitzes.

Overview

  • No. 9 Alabama plays undefeated No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal on Jan. 1 at 3 p.m. CT on ESPN, with the winner advancing to the CFP semifinal in the Peach Bowl on Jan. 9.
  • Mendoza has completed 71.5% of his throws for 2,980 yards and 33 TDs, but his completion rate falls from 76.5% when kept clean to 51.4% under pressure, and he has thrown more touchdowns when blitzed than when not blitzed, per PFF.
  • Models cited in coverage lean toward Indiana, with ESPN Analytics giving Alabama a 28.6% win chance and Jeff Sagarin projecting a 66% probability for Indiana and a 35–19 scoreline.
  • Indiana DC Bryant Haines injected bulletin-board material with a Dec. 25 post on X, as the Hoosiers arrive with top-five national ranks in scoring offense and scoring defense.
  • Alabama expects EDGE LT Overton back after missing the SEC title game and CFP first round, while analysts underscore the Tide’s inconsistent pass rush, run-game instability, and propensity for slow starts as key concerns.