Overview
- The Rosario Grain Exchange report, published Sunday, models a two‑year phaseout of export duties with full removal in 2028 and compares it with keeping current rates.
- Planted area would rise to 43.4 million hectares by 2036 under the no‑tax scenario, lifting total farm output to 182.6 million tonnes, a gain of about 10%.
- Agro‑exports would reach about US$50.5 billion a year by 2036, or US$6.4 billion more than under unchanged duties, driven mainly by soy and corn.
- The study estimates one transitional fiscal loss in 2027 of about US$153 million, break‑even in 2028, and by 2036 extra annual revenue of US$296 million for the nation and US$989 million for provinces, for a consolidated gain of US$1.286 billion.
- Export duties in Argentina are national and not shared with provinces, which helps explain why prior cuts in July 2025 and the new projections are central to the debate, with provinces eyeing growth in local taxes as farm activity expands.