Overview

• The presidential runoff on May 18 pits pro-Western Nicușor Dan against nationalist George Simion, with polls showing a razor-thin margin between the candidates.
• Simion, who opposes military aid to Ukraine and criticizes EU leadership, has strong support among the Romanian diaspora, particularly in Spain, where he won 74% of votes in the first round.
• Dan, a centrist and Bucharest mayor, emphasizes Romania's EU and NATO alignment, pledging anti-corruption reforms and continued support for Ukraine amid rising regional tensions.
• Both campaigns have accused each other of foreign interference, with Simion alleging manipulation by French President Macron and Moldova's government, while disinformation campaigns exacerbate societal divisions.
• A Simion victory could shift Romania’s geopolitical stance, risking isolation within the EU and NATO, while Dan's win would affirm Romania's pro-Western trajectory and stability.