Overview

• Romania's presidential election re-run is scheduled for May 4, with a potential runoff on May 18 if no candidate secures over 50% of votes in the first round.
• Far-right candidate George Simion, leader of the Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR), leads polls with around 30%, capitalizing on public discontent and nationalist sentiment.
• Simion's main opponents, pro-EU centrists Crin Antonescu and Nicușor Dan, are polling at 22% and 20% respectively, both supporting NATO, EU membership, and aid to Ukraine.
• The annulment of the November 2024 election was triggered by evidence of Russian cyber-attacks and paid social media amplification, leading to the disqualification of initial frontrunner Călin Georgescu.
• A Simion victory could strain Romania's relations with NATO and the EU, potentially isolating the country internationally and raising concerns over its geopolitical alignment.