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Robotics Optimism Lifts Tesla Stock as Valuation Fight Intensifies

Fresh optimism around Optimus collides with weaker fundamentals.

Overview

  • Tesla shares closed at $454.48 on Thursday, up 1.7% after a 4.1% rally Wednesday linked to a Barclays note citing possible White House action on humanoid robots.
  • Wall Street published wide-ranging robot forecasts, valuing Optimus at roughly $111 to $640 per share and modeling up to $400 billion in sales by 2050 based on speculative assumptions.
  • Michael Burry called Tesla "ridiculously overvalued" in his Cassandra Unchained newsletter, highlighting slowing revenue growth and compressed margins.
  • Tesla introduced a lower-priced Model 3 Standard in Europe, listing €37,970 in Germany and 449,990 Swedish crowns in Sweden to better compete with cheaper EVs.
  • Management guides to about $9 billion in 2025 capital spending to build Cybercab, ramp Semi, and expand AI and robotics infrastructure, signaling a strategic shift beyond vehicle profits.