Overview
- Chief investment officer Stephanie Guild told CNBC the base case implies roughly an 8.5%–8.7% gain for the index and does not call for double‑digit returns.
- Robinhood expects gains to be supported by sectors outside large‑cap technology, noting tech earnings forecasts are already well above long‑term trends.
- Customer participation remained elevated in 2025, though net buying has eased from a peak around October 29 after strong summer activity.
- The firm modeled probability ranges for multiple outcomes and highlighted potential headwinds from fiscal standoffs, rate moves, and employment conditions.
- Context for the outlook includes Robinhood’s strong 2025 performance, September inclusion in the S&P 500, and prediction markets surpassing 4 billion contracts traded.