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Robinhood Sees Single-Digit S&P 500 Gains in 2026 as Retail Buying Eases

Following a breakout year, Robinhood highlights product expansion from prediction markets to tokenization.

Overview

  • CIO Stephanie Guild set a base-case S&P 500 target near 7,500 for 2026, implying roughly 8.5%–8.7% gains.
  • Guild said customer net buying has cooled from a late‑October peak even as overall engagement remains elevated.
  • Robinhood expects market leadership to widen beyond large‑cap tech, pointing to stretched tech earnings assumptions.
  • After a standout 2025—shares up roughly 198%–215% and record third‑quarter revenue near $1.27–$1.3 billion—the company remains on a diversification push.
  • Prediction markets have surpassed 4 billion contracts, and Robinhood is integrating MIAXdx with a CFTC‑licensed launch targeted for 2026 as analysts recalibrate targets (Needham $135, Morgan Stanley $147, Barclays $171).