Overview

• The RN posts 33–35% of first‑round intentions and is shown reaching the runoff in all tested scenarios, whether led by Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella.
• Édouard Philippe polls about 16% against 14–16% for Raphaël Glucksmann, with Philippe rising to roughly 19% in a scenario where Glucksmann is not a candidate.
• Jean‑Luc Mélenchon stands at 12–13% in the configurations tested, while LR’s Bruno Retailleau registers between 9% and 13%.
• Figures from the presidential camp lag: Gabriel Attal at 10%, Gérald Darmanin at 7% and François Bayrou at 3%, with Philippe down from 22–26% in an April Ifop survey.
• The survey is an online Ifop‑Fiducial poll for Sud Radio and L’Opinion conducted Sept. 24–25 among 1,127 people using quotas, with a 1.4–3.1‑point margin of error, and it lands as reporting notes calls for an early presidential election.