Overview

• The Rassemblement National leads first‑round intentions at 33–35% in every scenario tested, whether the candidate is Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella.
• Bardella and Le Pen post near‑identical support, with Bardella slightly ahead in several configurations, signaling voter acceptance of either standard‑bearer.
• Édouard Philippe polls at 16–19% as the strongest centrist option but below earlier readings, while Raphaël Glucksmann climbs to 14–16% and surpasses Jean‑Luc Mélenchon at roughly 12–13%.
• Other potential macronist contenders lag further back, with Gabriel Attal near 10%, Gérald Darmanin about 7%, and François Bayrou around 3%, as Bruno Retailleau registers roughly 9–13% and Dominique de Villepin and Éric Zemmour sit near 4–6%.
• Conducted online on 24–25 September among 1,127 respondents (quota method; margin of error about 1.4–3.1 points), the poll did not test second‑round pairings; Ifop’s Frédéric Dabi cautions outcomes remain uncertain, and Mélenchon disputes the survey’s credibility.