Overview

• Rassemblement National leads first‑round voting intentions at 33–35% regardless of whether Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella heads the ticket, with Bardella slightly ahead in most tested scenarios.
• Raphaël Glucksmann registers 14–16% and now outpolls Jean‑Luc Mélenchon, who is measured at 12–13% across the configurations.
• Édouard Philippe polls between 16% and 19% depending on the left’s candidate, edging Glucksmann in some cases and reaching his high when Olivier Faure is tested.
• Potential contenders aligned with the presidential camp show weak support, with Gabriel Attal at 10%, Gérald Darmanin at 7% and François Bayrou at 3%, while LR’s Bruno Retailleau is estimated at 9–13%.
• The survey, conducted online by Ifop‑Fiducial for L’Opinion and Sud Radio on September 24–25 among 1,127 people using quotas, carries a margin of error of roughly 1.4 to 3.1 points.