Overview
- The Robert Koch-Institut published new national projections in the Journal of Health Monitoring that model diagnosed type-2 diabetes through 2050 with expanded scenario assumptions.
- Starting from 8.6% prevalence and 6.05 million people in 2022, a constant-incidence scenario reaches 16.1% and 11.01 million cases by 2050.
- With incidence declining by 2% per year, prevalence rises to 12.2% (8.39 million), or to 13.0% (8.94 million) if excess mortality also falls 2% annually.
- The authors state that every scenario shows rising case numbers, signaling greater demand for prevention and care services along with higher health expenditures.
- The analysis links risk to diet, physical activity, obesity, air pollution and social deprivation, and it highlights the need for measures such as stronger tobacco control.