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Rivian Pivots to Execution as $45,000 R2 SUV Becomes 2026 Proving Ground

Analysts view the mid-priced R2 as the pivotal volume driver that could validate recent margin gains.

Overview

  • Rivian plans to launch the R2 mid-size SUV this year at about $45,000, a lower entry point than the R1S’s roughly $78,000 starting price.
  • The company has improved gross margins since 2024 by reengineering R1T and R1S production and by selling regulatory credits and software services.
  • Free-cash-flow losses have narrowed to under $500 million over the past four quarters, and cash on hand stands at roughly $7 billion.
  • Analysts estimate revenue of about $6.8 billion this year and project roughly $11.2 billion in fiscal 2026 if the R2 launch and ramp go well.
  • Shares have fallen more than 90% from their peak and trade near 3 times sales, a valuation seen as speculative pending R2 execution.