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Rivian Narrows 2025 Outlook After Q3 Delivery Beat as EV Tax Credit Expires

Pulled‑forward buying after the tax credit’s expiration threatens late‑year sales.

Overview

  • Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles in Q3, up 32% year over year and above analyst estimates.
  • Factory output trailed demand with 10,720 vehicles produced in the quarter.
  • Full‑year delivery guidance tightened to 41,500–43,500 units, signaling a softer fourth quarter versus last year’s 14,183 deliveries.
  • The $7,500 federal EV tax credit ended on Oct. 1, removing a key price lever as higher tariffs on imported parts add cost and demand uncertainty.
  • Rivian plans to start building the roughly $45,000 R2 SUV in early 2026, with investors awaiting Nov. 4 earnings for order and margin updates and analysts cautioning that 2026 demand could remain weak.