Overview

• President Trump’s budget bill phases out federal EV tax credits by year-end and eliminates penalties for noncompliant automakers, stripping Rivian of its $325 million in high-margin regulatory credit profits from 2024.
• Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow downgraded Rivian from Buy to Neutral, reduced the price target from $16 to $13, and trimmed the 2028 sales forecast to 150,000 units from 185,000.
• Rivian delivered 10,661 vehicles in the second quarter, marking a year-over-year decline despite sequential growth, and now expects 2025 deliveries of 43,000 units, down from 52,000 in 2024.
• Just 26% of analysts maintain a Buy rating on Rivian compared with 55% for the S&P 500 average, and the stock has fallen 26% over the past year amid growing investor skepticism.
• The company’s path to sustained profitability now hinges on launching its more affordable R2 and R3 models in 2026 to offset the loss of credit-driven revenue.