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Rivian Deliveries Fall 18% in 2025 as Q4 Slumps, Meeting Lowered Guidance

Attention shifts to the February 12 earnings update for clarity on margins, demand trends, R2 timing.

Overview

  • Rivian delivered 9,745 vehicles in Q4 2025 and produced 10,974 at its Normal, Illinois plant, a 26.2% decline in deliveries from Q3.
  • Full‑year 2025 totals reached 42,247 deliveries and 42,284 produced, down about 18% from 2024 but within the company’s revised guidance.
  • Coverage links the sales slowdown to the September expiration of the federal EV tax credit alongside broader demand normalization.
  • Rivian is offering near‑term incentives, including up to a $6,500 lease bonus on select R1 models and 0.99% APR for 60 months on certain trims, with approvals due by January 6 and delivery by January 31.
  • Analysts diverge on the outlook, with Canaccord highlighting the planned first‑half 2026 R2 launch around $45,000 as a potential catalyst and Morgan Stanley warning of a possible 2026 demand air‑pocket as buyers await new autonomy hardware.