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Rising Farm Costs Put Texas Rural GOP Support at Risk

Higher fuel and fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war have eroded farmers' confidence and are threatening Republican rural margins in statewide races.

Overview

  • Texas farmers report steep increases in fuel and fertilizer costs that they and observers link to the war with Iran, squeezing farm budgets and livelihoods.
  • Polling shows rural economic satisfaction has plunged to 27% from 42% a year earlier while Ken Paxton still leads rural voters about 66% to 30%.
  • The Texas Farm Bureau PAC's endorsement of Paxton drew a public rebuke from former president Bob Stallman, exposing splits inside a key rural institution.
  • Democrats are actively courting farmers, arguing Republican policies have hurt rural Texas and aiming to peel away votes or suppress turnout that Republican candidates rely on.
  • If rural margins shrink or turnout falls, the roughly 400,000 farmers in Texas could influence close statewide contests by reducing the GOP cushion that offsets Democratic urban gains.