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Rio Tinto Misses Q3 Iron Ore Mark, Banks on Strong Year-End as Copper and Bauxite Shine

Early-year cyclones plus a pivot to a lower-grade Pilbara Blend weighed on shipments.

Overview

  • Pilbara shipments reached 84.3 million tonnes in Q3, narrowly below the 85.5 million tonne market consensus.
  • The company said a vigorous fourth quarter is needed to hit the lower end of its 2025 iron ore guidance of 323–338 million tonnes.
  • Four cyclones disrupted about 13 million tonnes of shipments in Q1, with roughly half expected to be recovered this year.
  • The new 60.8% Pilbara Blend expanded more than 50% quarter on quarter, cutting SP10’s share of shipments to 9% from 29%.
  • Oyu Tolgoi delivered a record copper quarter, keeping Rio on track for more than 50% annual copper growth, while bauxite set a second straight record and full-year guidance was raised to 59–61 million tonnes.