Overview
- Glencore confirmed preliminary discussions and said the current expectation is for Rio Tinto to acquire it via a scheme of arrangement.
- Analysts estimate a combined value in the roughly $200–$300 billion range, with some forecasts that Glencore investors could hold about 40–45% if Rio shares are the currency.
- Copper is the central rationale as miners race to secure supply for electrification and AI data centers, with Glencore’s project pipeline viewed as a key draw for Rio.
- Glencore’s substantial coal business remains a major hurdle for shareholder support and deal design, after Rio exited coal in 2018 and as potential carve-outs are weighed.
- Any deal would face heavy antitrust scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions, while the initial market reaction saw Glencore shares rise roughly 8–10% and Rio fall about 6%.