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Riksbank Cuts to 1.75% as Brazil’s Copom Holds Selic at 15%, Signaling Long Pause

The split underscores how inflation persistence versus growth weakness is pulling policy in opposite directions.

Overview

  • Sweden’s Riksbank lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% and indicated the current level could be kept for some time, framing the move as potentially the end of its easing cycle.
  • Riksbank officials said recent price gains above forecast—3.2% in August versus 2.8% in June—look transitory, citing weak consumption and a slow labor‑market response as reasons to support activity.
  • Brazil’s Copom kept the Selic at 15% for a second straight meeting and described a new phase of rate maintenance for a “very prolonged” period to secure disinflation.
  • The Brazilian central bank highlighted three drivers for its decision—inflation, the exchange rate and international uncertainty—stressed vigilance, and left the door open to resume hikes if needed.
  • Analysts diverge on when Brazil may start cutting, with some forecasting January and others pointing to December, as global conditions shift after recent Fed easing and the ECB’s hold at 2%.