Overview
- A constituency poll circulated inside Labour this week put Andy Burnham on 35%, Reform UK on 24% and Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain on 13%, a spread that Labour say would hand Burnham victory if the right‑of‑centre vote stays divided.
- Reform UK has rejected the leaked survey as unreliable and without published data, while Nigel Farage has publicly defended his candidate Robert Kenyon after the resurfacing of offensive past social posts.
- Analysis of the numbers shows that if Reform and Restore votes were added together they would overtake Labour, which means right‑wing consolidation before the 18 June vote would be decisive for the result.
- Restore Britain was founded by expelled ex‑Reform MP Rupert Lowe and has positioned itself as a spoiler; Lowe tried to recruit another ex‑Reform MP, James McMurdock, who publicly refused to join.
- A Burnham win would return him to Parliament and reopen plans for a Labour leadership bid, but party rules require 81 Labour MP nominations to trigger a formal contest so the by‑election is necessary but not sufficient.