Overview
- Édouard Philippe leads in multi‑candidate polls at roughly 13 percent, giving him an edge when several centre‑right figures are tested together.
- David Lisnard has risen in recent surveys to the mid‑to‑high single digits, increasing competition with LR leader Bruno Retailleau and changing strategic calculations.
- Bruno Retailleau said on Tuesday he is "persuaded" he would beat Philippe in a primary and also called for a union with Lisnard while pledging to back any primary winner.
- Pollsters and party insiders warn that Retailleau’s and Lisnard’s support bases do not simply add together, which complicates efforts to form a united ticket.
- Both Retailleau and Lisnard share similar programmatic proposals such as large public spending cuts and pension reform, which could ease coalition talks but still leaves unresolved whether a binding primary will be agreed before the campaign starts.