Overview
- The More in Common poll, published Wednesday, put Reform UK at about 23 percent and showed Restore Britain on roughly 4 percent after pollsters added the new party to their prompts.
- POLITICO and More in Common modelling found a formal pact between Reform and Restore would deter many voters who moved from the Conservatives to Reform, shrinking Reform’s pool of centre‑right supporters.
- Electoral Calculus polling shared with GB News gives a higher reading for Reform in the mid‑20s and says Reform still draws significant support from former Conservative voters, illustrating poll variance.
- Reform is also weakened by visible internal disputes, including the suspension of Tim Montgomerie, and by a resumed Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards probe into Nigel Farage’s undeclared donations.
- If the right stays fragmented, first‑past‑the‑post voting could hand an advantage to Labour, while a deal to stop vote‑splitting would risk alienating moderate switchers and shrink Reform’s electoral reach.