Overview
- Prediction markets now place BlackRock’s Rick Rieder as the frontrunner for President Trump’s Fed chair pick after the president signaled a decision is close.
- DOJ grand jury subpoenas tied to Jerome Powell’s 2025 testimony remain in effect, and Powell has condemned the probe as political intimidation to force rate cuts.
- Senate Democrats Elizabeth Warren and Dick Durbin demanded documents on the Powell probe, while Republican Sen. Thom Tillis vowed to oppose any Fed nominee until the investigation concludes and Sen. Lisa Murkowski urged congressional scrutiny of the DOJ.
- International central bank leaders publicly voiced “full solidarity” with Powell, and the Supreme Court heard arguments on Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with reporting noting skepticism from justices.
- Traders are pricing about a 97% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged on Jan. 28, and economists expect a pause with a higher bar for further cuts, with some forecasting a lone dissent favoring an immediate cut.