Overview
- Kalshi and Polymarket now price roughly a 48% to just-over-50% chance that President Trump selects Rieder.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a nomination for the next Federal Reserve chair could come this week.
- Rieder is BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, overseeing more than $2.4 trillion, and he has no prior central‑bank experience.
- He has argued for a lower neutral rate, discussed about 100 basis points of easing, and floated a federal funds rate near 3%.
- Commentators caution the odds swing is based on limited betting volume and few concrete leaks, with Kevin Warsh still viewed as a contender.