Overview
- Odds on Polymarket and Kalshi recently climbed to roughly 48–53% for Rieder after President Trump called him “very impressive,” overtaking earlier favorites Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a nomination could come as soon as this week, and Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends on May 15.
- Rieder is BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, overseeing about $2.4 trillion, and he has no prior Federal Reserve or central-banking experience.
- He has advocated a materially lower policy path, including a federal funds rate near 3% and discussion of roughly 100 basis points of easing.
- Analysts warn the betting signal is limited by thin volume of about $60 million, and any outside pick would still need a Fed Board seat and Senate confirmation.