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Richmond Fed: Record Share of Unemployed Are First-Time Job Seekers

The analysis links a pullback in entry-level hiring to employer caution driven by policy uncertainty, including tariffs.

Overview

  • New entrants accounted for 13.4% of July’s unemployed, the highest share since 1988, according to Richmond Fed analysis of government data.
  • Overall U.S. unemployment remains relatively low at about 4.2%, yet those without jobs are facing one of the toughest markets in years.
  • People unemployed for 27 weeks or more made up 25.2% of the jobless, the largest share since February 2022.
  • For Americans aged 22–27, unemployment reached 7.4% in the second quarter, with degree holders facing rates last seen in the early 2010s outside of 2020.
  • Richmond Fed economist John O’Trakoun describes a “double-whammy” for Gen Z, noting many began college during pandemic-era remote learning.