RFK Jr. Attracts 22% in Presidential Poll, Likely to Drop by Election Day
Despite high poll numbers, RFK Jr. unlikely to significantly impact election outcome due to historical trend of third-party candidates losing support closer to polling day.
- Despite currently polling at 22% of the vote, it is predicted that the support for RFK Jr, an independent presidential candidate, will not sustain till the election day. Historical trend shows third-party candidates tend to lose support closer to the polling day.
- RFK Jr's current popularity is seen as a proxy for wider discontent with the two likely general election candidates, both of whom are perceived as unpopular. RFK Jr. appears most popular among voters who view both major-party candidates unfavorably.
- A comparison is being drawn between Kennedy's run and Ross Perot's significant third-party bid in 1992. However, considering the fact that the current electorate is more polarized, and the parties much further apart on values, it doesn't seem likely that RFK Jr. will mirror Perot's influence.
- RFK Jr.'s campaign is also perceived differently due to his controversial political stances and conspiracy theories, which has led to his disavowal by his famed family. His campaign does not appear to resonate with real public concerns as Perot's did in 1992.
- The current poll indicates that if Kennedy were removed from the polling, it is expected that Biden and Trump would be equally supported, suggesting that Kennedy might draw more from Trump's support base than Biden's. Campaign finance reports also reflect that Republican-leaning donors are more likely contributing to Kennedy's campaign than Democratic-leaning ones.