Overview
- About 72% of merchants now charge for at least one type of return, up from 66% last year, according to NRF and Happy Returns.
- The industry expects roughly $849.9 billion in merchandise to be returned in 2025, or about 15%–19% of sales, with online returns near 19%.
- Adobe Analytics projects a 25%–35% jump in returns immediately after Dec. 26 compared with earlier holiday weeks, concentrating the season’s return wave.
- New or expanded fees include Macy’s $9.99 mail-in charge, T.J. Maxx/Marshalls $11.99 by mail, and Best Buy’s $45 restocking on certain activatable devices plus 15% on select opened items, while Amazon added stiff late and damage penalties.
- Shoppers can often avoid charges by returning in store during extended holiday windows that commonly run into late January, as retailers and processors deploy AI tools like Happy Returns’ risk scoring and Return Vision to flag fraud.