Overview
- Morningstar’s 2026 State of Retirement Income pegs a 3.9% starting withdrawal for a 90% chance of lasting 30 years with a balanced, inflation‑adjusted plan.
- Recent research shows married 65‑year‑olds with at least $100,000 withdraw about 2.1% annually on average, with singles near 1.9%, and retirees spend about 80% of guaranteed income.
- Vanguard finds only about one‑third of retirees take withdrawals every year, with a $133,000 median 401(k) balance that would yield roughly $5,300 under a classic 4% rule.
- Morningstar models flexible strategies—constant‑percentage and endowment approaches—that can lift initial withdrawals to about 5.7% in exchange for variable income.
- Key planning rules spotlighted include RMDs starting at age 73 with penalties for shortfalls, an average Social Security benefit of $2,071 per month in January 2026, and higher 2026 401(k) contribution and catch‑up limits.