Overview

• The plan would leave employees’ take‑home pay unchanged but shift more of the burden onto pensioners, landlords and the self‑employed, who pay income tax but not employee NI.
• The report sets out a wider £30bn menu, including higher dividend taxes, a broader sugar and salt levy, carbon charges on long‑haul flights and shipping, action on unpaid small‑business corporation tax, extending employer NI to LLPs, and a gradual cut to the VAT threshold from £90,000 to £30,000.
• The think tank estimates around £20bn of extra tax will be needed by 2029/30 to satisfy fiscal rules, with other forecasts putting the shortfall as high as £51bn, and urges a clear signal to reassure bond markets ahead of the 26 November Budget.
• Treasury officials reiterate a pledge to keep rates for working people low and not to raise the basic, higher or additional rates of income tax, employee NI or VAT, and decline to comment on prospective measures.
• Separate House of Commons Library analysis cited by the Liberal Democrats warns that extending frozen income tax thresholds would cost more than 1.3 million people hundreds of pounds, as business groups caution that further tax rises could weigh on growth and prices.