Overview
- Jeffrey Lewis and Decker Eveleth identified the former Krichev airbase in eastern Belarus as the probable location for mobile Oreshnik launchers, assessing about 90% confidence based on commercial imagery.
- Planet Labs photos indicate rapid work since early August, including a fenced rail transfer point and a camouflaged concrete pad at the runway consistent with a strategic missile facility.
- A person familiar with U.S. intelligence said the researchers’ assessment broadly tracks with government analysis, though U.S. agencies declined public comment.
- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said the first missiles had been deployed and suggested up to 10 could be based in the country, while the Krichev site appears large enough for roughly three launchers.
- Experts say positioning the hypersonic, nuclear-capable system would extend perceived strike reach and serve political signaling to deter NATO support for Ukraine, even as Belarus’s defense minister argues it does not change Europe’s balance of power.