Overview
- San Francisco Fed analysis drawing on 150 years of data concludes the 2025 tariff surge could raise unemployment while putting downward pressure on inflation through uncertainty and wealth effects.
- Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman find the effective tariff rate was about 14% by September, roughly half the ~27% implied by policy announcements due to shipment lags, exemptions, USMCA compliance, and enforcement or evasion.
- Pantheon Macroeconomics reports tariff receipts peaked at $34.2 billion in October before falling to $32.9 billion in November and $30.2 billion in December, signaling a waning revenue boost.
- Pantheon estimates the tariff shock adds about 0.9 percentage points to PCE inflation in total, with around 0.4 points already passed through by September, implying a smaller and fading price impact.
- Lower-than-forecast revenue complicates fiscal plans that anticipated far larger tariff proceeds, while the studies emphasize more persistent costs to growth and employment than to inflation.