Overview
- Voters in the Serb-majority entity go to the polls on November 23 after the Central Election Commission revoked Milorad Dodik’s mandate following his sentencing and multi‑year ban from political activity.
- Dodik’s ally Sinisa Karan faces Branko Blanusa of the Serbian Democratic Party, with polls indicating a near even race.
- Dodik has signaled he intends to retain de facto control regardless of the outcome and has described himself as “the president of all presidents.”
- He has warned that his SNSD parliamentary majority would block a Blanusa inauguration, a scenario that could trigger protests and renewed institutional paralysis.
- Marking 30 years since the Dayton deal, EUFOR remains on the ground as debates over the OHR’s Bonn powers persist alongside emigration, stalled reforms, and a fragile constitutional balance.