Overview

• Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election by a 1.6-point margin, the fifth-smallest in a century, while voter turnout dropped compared to 2020.
• Republicans gained control of the Senate, flipping four seats, and retained their House majority, achieving a governing trifecta alongside the presidency.
• Despite the GOP's victories, Trump’s coattails were limited, with significant drop-offs in down-ballot support for Republican Senate candidates in key states like Michigan and Nevada.
• Democrats performed better than expected in swing states, flipping House seats in New York and California and retaining competitive Senate seats in Trump-won states like Nevada and Wisconsin.
• Looking ahead, Republicans face structural advantages in the 2026 Senate map, but uncertainties remain about their ability to sustain power without Trump on future ballots.