Overview
- Republicans are struggling to recruit strong candidates in pivotal Senate contests more than a year before Election Day, with open primaries and infighting complicating their majority defense.
- President Trump has yet to weigh in on key contests, leaving hopefuls in Texas, North Carolina and Michigan uncertain about declaring their candidacies.
- In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton’s fundraising edge and loyalty to Trump over Sen. John Cornyn have fueled fears of a divisive primary that could hand a reliably Republican seat to Democrats.
- North Carolina’s surprise retirement by Sen. Thom Tillis has sparked a scramble for replacements including Lara Trump and RNC chair Michael Whatley, while Democrats eye former Gov. Roy Cooper.
- Democrats must net four seats in states Trump carried in 2024 to retake the Senate majority and view the GOP’s unsettled map as their best opportunity.