Overview
- The GOP holds a bare 218–213 edge that is functionally tighter due to Rep. Jim Baird’s hospitalization after a car crash, following Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s death and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation.
- House Democrats are set to add a member after the Jan. 31 special election runoff in Texas’ 18th District, which would narrow the margin to 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats.
- Georgia’s 14th District will hold an all-party special election on March 10 with a likely April 7 runoff, and the strongly Republican seat is expected to return a GOP member once certified.
- New Jersey’s 11th District is scheduled to be filled after an April 16 special general election, a race Democrats are favored to hold, which would bring the House to 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats if other counts hold.
- California law gives Gov. Gavin Newsom 14 days to call a special election for LaMalfa’s seat, with an initial vote possible around June 2 under the current Republican-leaning lines, even as analysts warn Speaker Mike Johnson’s grip remains precarious and he publicly plays down the risk.