Overview

• Multiple outlets report Ernst has told confidantes she will forgo a third term, with a formal announcement expected Thursday, and her office has not commented.
• An open seat is already drawing contenders, including Democrats Zach Wahls, Josh Turek, Jackie Norris and Nathan Sage, who have announced campaigns.
• Republicans are preparing successors, with Rep. Ashley Hinson widely seen as well positioned to run and allies saying she would consider a bid; sources also mention Matt Whitaker as a potential entrant.
• The race carries national stakes as Republicans hold a 53–47 Senate majority and Iowa was previously rated Likely Republican, though Democrats point to recent state-level wins as a sign of opportunity.
• Ernst faced recent headwinds, including backlash to a town hall remark and tensions over Pete Hegseth’s nomination, softer fundraising, and pressure from GOP leaders and White House officials even as she privately cited a two-term intention and plans to enter the private sector.