Overview

• French outlets cite Tchéka-OGPU claiming a damaged fuel system is flooding the hold, creating explosion risk and outpacing the crew’s limited spares and expertise.
• Open-source tracking shows the Black Sea Fleet Kilo-class boat transited Gibraltar on Sept. 26 and was on the surface south of Portugal with no distress signal.
• NATO assets, including a U.S. P-8 patrol aircraft, have been monitoring the transit, and the submarine appeared to be moving under its own power in heavy weather.
• The sub has been sailing with the replenishment ship Yakov Grebelsky, while analysts say the Russian cargo vessel Lauga could be rerouted to assist, a possibility not yet corroborated.
• The situation is being read as a sign of wider maintenance strains on Russia’s fleet linked to wartime wear, sanctions and restricted access to repair hubs such as Baltic yards and Tartous.