Overview
- The Dalhousie Agri‑Food Analytics Lab forecasts a net loss of about 4,000 restaurants this year after an estimated net decline of 7,000 in 2025.
- If the projection holds, the total number of establishments would drop from roughly 98,000 pre‑2019 to fewer than 84,000 by early 2027.
- Restaurants Canada estimates about 41% of operators are losing money or only breaking even as many Canadians cut back on dining out.
- The study highlights higher input and labour costs, changes to the temporary foreign worker program, and reduced alcohol purchases as key pressures.
- Independent operators are most vulnerable, with Manitoba showing a sharp rise in money-losing venues, an Edmonton restaurateur pivoting to catering, and Ontario expected to be hit hard.