Overview

• Covering 20 major producers responsible for about 80% of global output, the Production Gap 2025 report finds planned 2030 production is 120% above a 1.5°C-consistent pathway and 77% above a 2°C pathway.
• Coal shows the largest mismatch, with 2030 output projected about 500% above a 1.5°C-aligned level, while oil and gas plans are 31% and 92% higher, respectively.
• Plans have generally worsened since 2023, with 11 of the 20 countries increasing intended output, and only the UK, Australia and Norway projecting lower oil and gas by 2030.
• Canada’s planned oil increase by 2030 ranks behind only Saudi Arabia, Brazil, the United States and Nigeria among the countries profiled.
• The report warns new approvals risk locking in emissions and requiring steeper, costlier cuts later, as leaders gather in New York and prepare pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil.