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Renewables Top Coal in Global Power Generation for First Time in H1 2025

The IEA now warns growth will fall short of the COP28 tripling goal due to policy shifts in the United States and China.

Overview

  • Ember’s analysis of monthly data from 88 countries covering roughly 93% of demand shows renewables generated 5,072 TWh in the first half of 2025 versus coal’s 4,896 TWh.
  • Solar provided about 83% of the increase in global electricity demand, with solar generation up 31% year over year; global power‑sector emissions edged down an estimated 0.2%.
  • China added more solar and wind than the rest of the world combined and cut fossil generation by about 2%, while India’s clean power growth outpaced demand and reduced coal and gas use.
  • In contrast, fossil generation rose in the US and EU due to fast demand growth and weaker wind and hydro output, with US coal generation reported higher in H1 2025.
  • The IEA projects renewable capacity to reach about 2.6 times 2022 levels by 2030—roughly 4,600 GW with solar supplying about 80% of growth—after downgrading its outlook, including a near‑50% cut to the US forecast.