Overview
- Media reports say U.S. forces carried out an operation in Venezuela that detained President Nicolás Maduro, while Venezuela’s Supreme Court directed Vice President Delcy Rodriguez to serve as interim leader.
- Jefferies expects little immediate effect on crude prices but sees scope for a gradual Venezuelan output recovery by 2027–28 if major investment returns, subject to OPEC+ decisions and sanction outcomes.
- Reliance could benefit if sanctions ease, as its Jamnagar refinery is equipped for heavy Venezuelan crude and previously had a supply arrangement with PDVSA that ended in 2019.
- Jefferies notes ONGC has more than $500 million in unpaid dividends from the San Cristobal field and holds 11% of the Carabobo project, which could gain traction if conditions stabilize.
- Indian oil-linked stocks advanced, with Reliance hitting a 52-week high and ONGC, Oil India and Indian Oil Corporation rising up to about 2%, though ONGC later pared gains.