Overview

• An international research team reconstructed roughly 21,000 years of reindeer population history using fossils, genetic data and climate models to inform future projections.
• North American herds are projected to shrink between 42% and 84% by 2100 under moderate and high emissions scenarios.
• South Asian populations risk total extirpation if current warming trends continue.
• Global declines may drive herds below sustainable thresholds, threatening Arctic ecosystems and the livelihoods of indigenous communities.
• Lead author Elisabetta Canteri and colleagues urge swift investment in conservation and adaptive management to protect vulnerable herds.