Overview

• Investec forecasts July’s RPI at 4.5%, implying that the regulated fare cap could climb to 5.5% in 2026, up from this year’s 4.6% increase above inflation.
• Around 45% of rail fares are regulated by devolved governments, and operators typically mirror any rise in unregulated prices to stay aligned with policy.
• The Department for Transport says no decisions have been made on next year’s fares and an update on regulated caps is due later this year.
• Railfuture and Campaign for Better Transport warn that a 5.5% increase would deter passengers and cite a survey finding 71% would travel more if fares were lower.
• Great British Railways is due to integrate infrastructure and operations next year, offering scope for fare reform that advocates say must benefit customers.