Overview
- A YouGov survey conducted 21–22 December records Reform on 25%, down three points to a six‑month low, with Labour at 20% and the Conservatives at 19%.
- Sir John Curtice’s year-end averages place Reform at about 29% in December, slipping from a 32% peak in September, as the two largest parties hit a record-low combined share.
- Other polls show volatility, including Lord Ashcroft–commissioned fieldwork putting Reform on 25% with the Conservatives on 22% and Labour on 18%, while a recent Deltapoll had Reform at 30%.
- Experts link Reform’s dip to reputational troubles involving allegations about Nigel Farage’s past language, a racism row over a Hampshire mayoral candidate, and the Russia-linked conviction of ex-Welsh leader Nathan Gill.
- Curtice reports that nearly three in ten 2024 Conservative voters and about one in eight 2024 Labour voters now back Reform, while Green support has risen to roughly 13% under leader Zack Polanski.